With the Consolidated Natural Act of 2008 scheduled to take affect Nov. 28, it is uncertain what

impact it will have on the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands.

The act, which was signed into law by President George W. Bush on May 8, 2008, applies federal immigration law in the CNMI through a transition program. The transition program is intended by Congress to allow for federal immigration law to be applied in a manner sensitive to the unique circumstances and needs of the CNMI.

The transition was scheduled to begin June 1, but was delayed 180 days at the request of Guam Delegate Madeleine Z. Bordallo and CNMI Delegate Gregorio Kilili Camacho Sablan, to allow the governments of Guam and the CNMI to work together to address concerns regarding the proposed transition program and the expansion of eligibility for country participation under the new Guam-CNMI visa waiver program.

Although subject to most U.S. laws, the CNMI has administered its own immigration system since 1978, under the terms of its 1976 Covenant with the United States, according to the U.S. Government Accountability Office. The CNMI has applied this flexibility to admit substantial numbers of foreign workers through a permit program for non-U.S. citizens (noncitizens) entering the CNMI. In 2005, these workers represented a majority of the CNMI labor force and outnumbered U.S. citizens in most industries, including garment manufacturing and tourism, which have been central to the CNMI’s economy.

The act has people in the CNMI particularly concerned about the future of Russian and Chinese tourists to the islands, which represent about $190 million in annual revenue, according to the office of CNMI Gov. Benigno R. Fitial. It also had people concerned about regulations for foreign workers, investors, students and retirees.

The federalization was also cited as one of the reasons why the commonwealth’s bond rating was downgraded earlier this year. In May, a report from Moody’s Investors Service downgraded the commonwealth’s rating of general obligations bonds to “B2” from “Ba3.” According to Fitial’s office, the federalization  of the CNMI’s immigration control was a factor in the commonwealth’s deteriorating financial situation and financial rating.

“The federal takeover of CNMI immigration policy set to take effect November 2009 creates additional uncertainty in the already beleaguered tourist sector.” The report specifically cited the expected loss of vital Chinese and Russian tourists as a basis for the CNMI’s financial downgrade.

Moody’s also cited a staggering CNMI population decline that will be exacerbated by restrictive new federal immigration rules that will result in the loss of more foreign workers and less economic activity in the Commonwealth.

In downgrading the CNMI’s credit rating, Moody’s also cited the CNMI government’s pension crisis and budget crisis as contributing factors to the CNMI’s weakened financial condition. But CNMI Lt. Governor Eloy S. Inos notes that these very factors are also adversely affected by the Federalization of the CNMI’s immigration and minimum wage laws.

“Federalization has harmed and will further harm our economy and tourism industry,” Inos said in a release. “And this will result in less  economic activity and less revenues to address our government’s budget and pension crisis.”

Inos points out that the CNMI government has had to substantially reduce its operating budget below $160 million. “If we had a stronger economy that brought in $200 million in government revenues, as we did before, we could then allocate $40 million or more to the Northern Marianas Retirement Fund,” he said. Federalization makes CNMI economic growth very difficult, he added.

While some people are concerned about the affects of the Consolidated Natural Act of 2008, others are worried about the uncertainty that would be created if the implementation of the act is delayed any further.

According to an Aug. 30 article in the Saipan Tribune, U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources staffer Allen Stayman said delaying the act won’t reduce the uncertainty the commonwealth faces.

In the article, Stayman said, “This is going to be a difficult transition and it may be that the best thing you do is to just get on with it. The further delay is not going to reduce the uncertainty that we’re currently facing. What’s going to resolve the uncertainty and thequestions is to get on with the process.”